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Water Trends
Water Supply
Relatively fixed global water supplies are increasingly stressed by population
growth. Urban growth in particular both intensifies the demand for water and at
least potentially reduces both water supply and water quality. Conventional
urban development replaces native vegetation with paved surfaces, channeling
rainfall away from where it lands and preventing it from filtering through the
soil to replenish the groundwater. In contrast to the filtering and cleansing
effect of the soil, water traveling along pavement and through cement storm
systems picks up pollutants such as oil and gasoline residues, fertilizers,
herbicides, and pesticides, and concentrates them downstream. As a result,
conventional storm sewer systems can both divert a potential resource (water
from rainfall) and increase water pollution.
Current negotiations over allocations from the Colorado River in the U.S.
demonstrate the tensions between agricultural, municipal, and environmental
requirements for water. Regions lacking generous natural water supplies have
already tied new development to assurance of sufficient water to support it.
California passed a law in 2001 prohibiting cities from approving subdivisions
larger than 500 homes unless developers prove adequate long-term water supplies.
Another bill is pending in California that would require cities to address water
supply in their general plans -- advance planning documents that govern land use
and development over a ten-to-20 year timeframe. Arizona's Groundwater
Management Code of 1980 was designed to achieve long-term balancing of
groundwater withdrawals with natural and artificial recharging of aquifers. New
subdivisions in Arizona's major metropolitan and agricultural areas require
assurance of a 100-year water supply and available financing to construct
necessary water infrastructure.
Regions whose growth exceeds the water resources they can control will face
increased competition for excess supplies from better endowed regions. However,
it is also becoming clear that relying solely upon water imports is not a
permanent solution. The U.S. Department of Interior has estimated that even if
southern California is able to maintain its existing level of water imports from
the Colorado River and the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento River watershed, it will
still experience water shortages ten to 20 years in the future as anticipated
population growth outstrips available water supplies. In addition, the fact the
watersheds are not neatly contained within single state or national boundaries
means that political disputes over water supplies will intensify.
A key part of water supply is water storage. In the past water storage primarily
meant building dams and reservoirs to capture snowmelt and river flows for later
use. Much of that infrastructure is now old and calling for decisions to repair,
improve, replace, or remove it altogether. Damming rivers has negatively
impacted downstream water quality, ecosystems, and in some cases, flood
management, resulting in significant political pressure against new dam projects
and in favor of removing some existing dam structures. In addition, there is
increasing public resistance to taxes or general obligation bonds to support
large capital-intensive infrastructure projects in general. Foreshadowing the
anticipated December 2003 release of the state of California's long-term water
plan, a Department of Water Resources official recently announced that
California is no longer considering any new dam sites in the state,
acknowledging funding limitations and environmental opposition. Instead, the
state will place increasing reliance on conservation, recycling, seawater
desalination, and groundwater storage.
Water Efficiency
Pressure on water supplies will lead to increased emphasis on water conservation
and efficiency, resulting from both regulatory initiatives and market forces
(higher prices).
In the U.S., hydroelectric power and irrigation (agricultural and recreational
(e.g., parks and golf courses) combined) represent the largest water uses,
presenting the greatest opportunity for overall water use reduction. Municipal
water use is the fastest growing segment, presenting the greatest opportunity
for controlling increases in overall demand. (see The Heinz Center's 2002
report, The State of the Nation's Ecosystems ).
Technological improvements in irrigation systems can achieve substantial water
savings, and reduce soil salinity and runoff caused by overwatering. At the
residential and commercial level, increased use of xeriscaping -- landscaping
with native plants that require little or no watering -- also reduces both water
usage and runoff. With lawn watering often the largest household water use,
several communities in the arid southwestern U.S. have implemented programs to
pay residents to replace lawns with native plants.
Building codes currently require water-efficient appliances and fixtures,
reinforcing a market for existing and improved products. Some municipalities
restrict water use, often on a seasonal or temporary basis. Denver, Colorado,
for example, recently restricted residential outdoor watering to two hours twice
a week and required commercial users, city parks, and golf courses to cut usage
by approximately half. Some jurisdictions, such as Irvine Ranch Water District
in California, use tiered pricing structures that reward water conservation and
penalize water waste.
The value of water saved through efficiency measures often pays for their cost,
and depending on the price of water, may return profits on investment sufficient
to attract private capital. New uses for water saved through conservation
measures also provide the basis for water transfer agreements, such as those for
the transfer of water from Imperial Irrigation District in California to
Metropolitan Water District and San Diego County Water Authority, who agreed to
fund the improvements in return for use of the water saved.
A necessary requirement for most regulatory and market approaches to reducing
water consumption is reliable information on water usage. The U.S. Bureau of
Reclamation, for example, has required meters to be installed at the point of
use as a condition of renewing federal water contracts. California currently
requires water meters to be installed in all new homes. Proposed legislation
that would have required water meters to be installed at all residences and most
commercial buildings statewide by 2008 was recently withdrawn due to politically
powerful opposition from the city of Sacramento (other currently unmetered
cities such as Fresno support state mandates in order to be able to meet federal
water contract requirements despite local resistance to meters). Private equity
firms have recently announced investments in two water meter companies --
Wellspring International (Expansion Capital, Nth Power, and Calvert) and Viterra
Energy Services (CVC Capital Partners).
Water Reclamation and Recycling
Water has the potential to be a completely renewable resource. Most water is
used and returned, directly or indirectly, to the water supply, though often in
a more degraded form. Technologies that capture used water, treat it for reuse,
upgrade water quality, and provide for environmentally benign disposal, use or
elimination of water treatment byproducts will be in demand.
Some jurisdictions are requiring new developments to install greywater systems
for lawn watering (Orlando, Florida), though proposals elsewhere have been
defeated by public resistance (Redwood City, California).
Infrastructure Repair and Replacement
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated future capital
investment needs of $485 billion to $896 billion from 2000 through 2019 for
water infrastructure repair, replacement, and upgrades, based on a number of
trends:
Deferred maintenance
Inadequate capital replacement
Existing infrastructure nearing the end of its useful life
Continued population growth
Continued pressure for new development
Based on its analysis of historical spending, the EPA also predicts a gap in
available funding of up to $724 billion over the same period.
While the devil is certainly in the details, it is clear that replacing aging
public infrastructure is not fully funded, creating opportunities for
privatization of water-related assets and for innovative public-private
partnerships.
Water Quality
Water quality has obvious impacts on water supply. This section will discuss
three threats to water quality: intentional contamination, groundwater
contamination and contamination from runoff.
The September 11, 2001 attacks on New York City and Washington, DC focused new
attention on water security. The 2002 Public Health, Security and Bioterrorism
Act requires utilities to report and develop plans to remedy security
vulnerabilities. In recent reports to the EPA under the Act, providers of 80
percent of the U.S. drinking water supply estimated that they will need an
aggregate $1.6 billion in security upgrades, including increased physical
security (more guards and better fences and lighting) and more frequent and more
sophisticated water quality testing.
Groundwater contamination can spread far beyond its original source, as
underground plumes of contaminants travel through aquifers. Significant recent
media attention has focused on perchlorate, a rocket and missile fuel byproduct
that has been used in 22 U.S. states and has been detected in the groundwater
and in the Colorado River, a major source of water to agricultural regions in
California. The chemical has been found to cause thyroid dysfunction and
developmental disorders. A recent study by the Environmental Working Group, a
non-profit organization based in Washington, DC and Oakland, California, found
concentrations of perchlorate in 4 of 22 samples of winter lettuce purchased
from grocery stores. The city of Rialto, California has lost half its water
capacity due to perchlorate contamination. Lake Mead (created on the Colorado
River by the Hoover Dam), which provides the drinking water supply for Las
Vegas, was recently found to contain ten times the level of perchlorate
determined by the U.S. EPA to be safe. Perchlorate has attracted significant
political attention, particularly in the context of proposed federal legislation
that would exempt the U.S. military and defense contractors from a wide range of
environmental laws and regulations. The Bush administration referred perchlorate
contamination issues to the National Academy of Sciences for review, and banned
EPA scientists from talking publicly about the subject until that review is
concluded. Three U.S. Senators demanded that the gag order be lifted, and one
has also requested that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration conduct its own
study in consultation with the EPA and Department of Agriculture. The EPA
announced in July 2003 that it will not set a federal drinking water standard
for perchlorate, leaving each state to determine whether and at what level to
set its own standard.
Surface water runoff following storm events also results in water pollution.
Common pollutants include fertilizers, herbicides, and pesticides from
residential areas and agricultural land, oil and gasoline residues from streets,
and trash. Soil erosion at sites containing hazardous chemicals can also lead to
contaminated runoff. Following fires at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in
2000, for example, New Mexico environmental officials found elevated levels of
plutonium in storm runoff. Soil erosion and water runoff increased dramatically
after the fires, resulting in post-fire plutonium concentrations in the runoff
of about 100 times pre-fire levels. Erosion control and effective stormwater
management are essential to water quality.
Stormwater and Nonpoint Source Pollution
Stormwater is runoff from land and impervious areas such as paved streets,
parking lots, and building rooftops during rainfall and snow events that often
contains pollutants that adversely impact water quality. Most pollution from
stormwater is considered nonpoint source pollution. Unlike point source
pollution -- water pollution with a distinct, identifiable source, such as a
pipe or channel -- nonpoint source pollution has no distinct source -- runoff,
for example, originates everywhere precipitation hits the ground. Nonpoint
source pollution is both difficult to regulate, because it is everywhere, and
the most significant cause of impaired water bodies today.
The Clean Water Act of 1972 requires states to develop watershed-based plans for
controlling nonpoint source pollution. California's approach, for example,
involves a collection of best management practices (BMPs), the implementation of
which is determined by nine regional water quality boards.
Amendments to the Clean Water Act classified some stormwater discharges
(municipal, construction-related, and industrial) as point sources to be
regulated by the U.S. EPA under its National Pollutant Discharge Elimination
System (NPDES) program. Phase I, developed in 1990, covers medium and large
municipal separate storm sewer systems located in incorporated places or
counties with populations of 100,000 or more; construction activity that
disturbs five or more acres of land; and ten types of industrial activity. Phase
II, effective March 2003, extended the program to small municipal separate storm
sewer systems located in urbanized or other specifically designated areas, and
to construction activities disturbing between one and five acres of land.
Those responsible for regulated stormwater discharges must obtain an NPDES
permit and implement stormwater pollution prevention plans (SWPPPs) or storm
water management programs that incorporate BMPs, which are necessarily location-
and activity-specific. BMPs for the construction industry, for example, include
methods for erosion and sediment control during construction (e.g., geotextiles
to protect steep slopes, sediment filters), and structural methods to reduce
runoff post-construction (e.g., porous paving, filters). Extension of the NPDES
program to smaller municipal systems and construction sites should increase
demand for stormwater management technologies, products, and related services.
Except for larger or higher risk animal feeding operations, agricultural
operations are not regulated under the federal NPDES program. States have the
authority to regulate agricultural runoff, but not many do in any comprehensive
way, according to an Environmental Law Institute study. Despite farm industry
arguments that voluntary programs are successful and that the industry cannot
afford increased regulation, general exemptions for agriculture are coming under
intense pressure as many environmentalists and scientists believe that
agricultural practices are the leading cause of water pollution in the U.S. In
California, agricultural waivers granted 20 years ago are under review by the
state water board, and environmental groups have sued the Central Valley
Regional Water Control Board to end waivers in the state's most productive
agricultural region.
Some communities are taking an integrated approach to stormwater management,
using methods that accomplish several objectives including increasing water
supply. The Sun Valley Watershed Project in Los Angeles County, for example, is
developing a watershed management plan that is designed to capture stormwater
before it becomes runoff, treat it if necessary, and let it filter through the
soil to recharge groundwater supplies. The plan contemplates a variety of
stormwater best management practices, including retention basins that hold
runoff for gradual release, underground filtration fields that hold stormwater
until the ground can absorb it, home cisterns that capture rainfall for
irrigation use, and mulching to slow runoff and encourage plant growth. In the
state of Washington, pending legislation would provide a minimum 10% credit on
stormwater or surface water management fees charged by local governments to
building owners and developers who install permissive rainwater harvesting
systems on new or remodeled commercial buildings. Other jurisdictions have
implemented stormwater utilities to fund infrastructure for stormwater
management, sometimes with credit given for design features such as rainwater
harvesting or green roofs that mitigate stormwater flows.
Desalination
Desalination is the treatment of water to remove dissolved salts. There are more
than 12,500 desalination plants in 120 countries, and the worldwide desalination
market is forecast to grow from US$2 billion in 1997 to more than US$70 billion
over 20 years, according to a Frost & Sullivan study.
Desalination has several applications, including treating irrigation drainage
and other wastewater, reducing groundwater salinity (e.g., in irrigated areas
and in coastal communities where seawater intrudes depleted aquifers), and
making seawater suitable for potable use. Once economically feasible only in
extremely arid regions of the world such as the Middle East, seawater
desalination has again captured the attention of coastal communities in the U.S.
that currently rely heavily upon water imports to meet their needs. Several
California coastal communities (Carlsbad, Huntington Beach, Long Beach, Marin,
Morro Bay, and Santa Barbara) are in various stages of exploring and developing
desalination plants, some after earlier disappointments.
Desalination plants are expensive to build and energy-intensive to operate,
though costs and energy requirements have both declined significantly with
technological advances. Disposal of brine by-product -- the salts remaining
after the water is extracted -- is also an ongoing environmental concern
requiring some resolution, as high concentrations of salt can disrupt ecosystems
wherever they are dumped.
I nvesting
In Water
Investing in "Blue Gold"
Despite its fundamental importance to life, water
is often taken completely for granted. Too many people think the world will
never run out of the commodity.
But while there is plenty of water on this planet we call home, only 2.5% of it
is fresh, drinkable water. And much of that is locked up in glaciers,
groundwater and soil.
Less than 1% of the world's supplies are easily accessible fresh water.
This precious supply is under tremendous stress. Marcus Norton of the Carbon
Disclosure Project said, "The effects of climate change, increasing population,
urbanization, per capita demand and pollution damage to supplies will put even
greater pressure on these limited resources."
Consider how in 1900, the world's population was only 1.6 billion people. Today,
that number has grown to about 6.5 billion and water consumption has swelled by
six-fold since 1900. And by 2025, it is expected to hit 9 billion, putting even
more pressure on the Earth's scarce fresh water resources.
Already, about 40% of people around the globe don't have access to clean water,
including 15% of Latin America. A continent away, two thirds of China faces
similar shortages.
Meanwhile:
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The World Health Organization
estimates that 80% of all sickness stems from unsafe water and sanitation.
Each year, five million people – many of them children – die from
water-related diseases.
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The United Nations forecasts
that by 2030, almost half the world's population will live in areas facing
water stress or water scarcity. Already, over 80 countries are facing
critical water shortages.
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The Population Institute says
global demand for fresh water already exceeds supply by 17%.
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The International Food Policy
Research Institute claims that by 2020, we will need 20% more water than is
currently available.
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The 2030 Water Resources Group
estimates that global water requirements will soar by over 50% over the next
20 years.
The price of water may be rising, but no one complains when
buying the stuff, even though it costs twice as much as gasoline, which we'll
gladly gripe about.
That's why the current and worsening shortage is leading to an exploding bull
market in the world's most precious commodity and the companies involved in the
industry.
Investing In Water…and Taking Advantage Of The Supply Gap
The global water industry is currently a $460 billion market. And as the
population grows, pollution increases, supplies become more scarce and more
strain is placed on water infrastructure, it's no surprise that many have dubbed
water "blue gold" because of its immense profit potential.
According to Fortune: "Water is one of the great business opportunities. Water
promises to be to the 12st century what oil was to the 20th century:
the precious commodity that determines the wealth of nations."
And it's easy to see why investors are dubbing it one of the most profitable
plays out there. Demand already outstrips supply by a wide margin… and the gap
is getting bigger. We've already mentioned that the population of the earth is
growing at an exponential clip – 1.5% – 2%. What we haven't said yet is that our
water use is growing even faster at 2.5% – 3%.
When you take in household use, crops, bathing and drinking water, the average
person goes through 232 gallons a day. Much of that comes from agricultural
needs, which account for about 70% of all water usage. And we all know how
important our crops are.
Jeffrey Sachs, director of the United Nations Millennium Project, put it
bluntly: "The world is running out of water. We need a radical plan to tackle
shortages that threaten the ability of humanity to feed itself."
It's not just agriculture… A whole range of economic activities and industries
will be affected globally by water shortages. Industries from the food and
beverage industry to the energy industry to high-tech industries such as pharma
and semiconductors rely on blue gold in order to function properly.
Fortunately, there are solutions out there… and if you invest in the companies
providing those solutions, you're bound to make a tidy profit.
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